Monday, February 15, 2016

MarketWatch: Luke Skywalker (Hoth Battle Gear)

We're happy to finally present Michael's Luke Hoth MarketWatch tied in with 'Chive Cast 69. Much like the majority of that podcast, it is presented here as it was written nearly a year ago.

Michael L. writes:

After last month's attempt at finding a "game-show" version of displaying the data, I've decided it will revert to just presenting a simple overview of the market.

The market continues to power on...the pricing we are seeing for some of the more headline items in the hobby are reaching crazy pricing (yes 12 Backs, I'm looking at you). It's hard not to apply a simple financial logic to all this and say it is a classic asset bubble developing which is destined for a crash. That said, lots of emotion and nostalgia are tied up in these pieces and it is simply reflecting the fact that more and more people want to collect these items. I do wonder what will happen if Episode VII ends up having an Episode I feel in the fanboy community. That said, if Disney really nails this movie are we in for an even big price surge. There are lots of threads out there discussing this very phenomenon so I will end it there.

Here's the overview for the month (this data is from early 2015):


45 Back
 - AFA80 - $425.00
 - AFA80Y - $227.50
 - AFA75Y - $162.50
 - Ungraded - $150 (approximate - BIN offer)

47 Back
 - AFA70Y - $300
 - Ungraded - There were a range of these with varying quality from $99.99-$175. The MOC at $175 was quite beat up with the POP neatly removed but had a clear bubble.

48 Back
 - 48B Ungraded $83
 - 48C Ungraded $69.99
 - 48C Ungraded - sold together with a Han Hoth 48 Back $223.50 (the Luke Hoth had two price stickers - with the cheapest price tag of $1.88).

I wasn't overly surprised by the examples found this month. The debut card graded AFA80 went for a solid price, without it seeming too crazy. Still plenty of cheaper examples around for the ungraded pieces. And I really liked that double sale with Han Hoth -- nice way to add two nice pieces for just over $100 each.

45 Back - AFA80 - $425
45 Back - AFA80Y $227.50
45 Back - AFA75Y $162.50
45 Back Ungraded $162.50

UPDATE TO POST - February 2016:

Given the above data was compiled back in mid-2015, I felt it appropriate to add in a few current examples. Oh and yeah, you can disregard my reference to any thought that Disney might NOT have nailed Episode VII... it's safe to say they did! And pricing has certainly continued to be strong, though perhaps a few examples out there that the high graded pieces in the 12 backs (at least) may have seen a top, but we'll see if that's a trend or aberration in the coming months.

As you'll see below there is one crazy auction where the price settled on over $3k for a clear bubble AFA80 48A (the only offerless ESB cardback). It's hard to think the buyer actually went through with the purchase. But there are some serious deep pockets out there these days. The other two 48A's were much more reflective of what we'd expect for this figure.

The market has certainly increased a over the period between data points - the two $800+ examples plus the $3k (if we assume it was paid) show what the higher end more desirable examples are fetching. I would say though that when the examples are not graded the market has not risen too dramatically, reinforcing the premium people pay for those acrylic tombs for their MOC's.

Anyway, here's a quick rap of some pricing (circa late 2015 - early 2016) for Luke Hoth:


45 Back
 - AFA85-Y - $380
 - Ungraded - $149.99

47 Back
 - AFA80-Y - $369.99

48 Back
 - 48A AFA80 - $3,383.33 (here's the eBay link)
 - 48A AFA80 - $861
 - 48A AFA75 - $354.89
 - 48C AFA85Y - $821.25
 - 48C ungraded - $75
45 AFA85-Y $380
45 Ungraded $149.99
47 AFA80-Y $369.99
48A AFA80 $3,383
48A AFA80 $861
48A AFA75 - $354.89
48C AFA85Y $851.25
So I'll end the post at those examples. Was interesting to re-visit this post after the actual 'Chive Cast for Luke Hoth fell into the abyss for a period. The higher end pieces have certainly increased over that time. And there certainly has been a shift into ESB characters for the newer collectors, given 12 Back pricing has continued to climb and climb, thus driving up the high end pieces. There certainly remains value out there if you hunt the non-graded items ---and as a collector who started with graded pieces but moved away I would recommend the ungraded items. And you can always pop them in an acrylic case to give that almost 'high' end look :).

As always, happy buying and selling Space Freaks... Wampa Wampa.

1 comment:

  1. Thanks for the rundown as always. Still looking for a Luke Hoth POTF coin if anyone has one out there. The prices have been all over the map on that piece, but steadily rising for sure.