Happy summer space freaks. As promised here is our second round of our “This is Reality” editorial, focusing on four specific trends in the hobby that quite frankly are the reality of the hobby today. This month we’ll cover several topics including the inequity in character values, specifically Boba Fett and Darth Vader. We’ll talk about AFA and it’s true rarity vs. value, amongst several different segments of the hobby, MOC, MISB and some others as well. We’ll wrap up this month with an unplanned, but very important update on something that has become an alarming common trend over the past few years. That being abandoned auctions the new type of evil in collecting.
Character Value
Trends
When it comes to the popularity of
certain characters in the Star Wars universe there are a couple different
schools of thought and varying opinions on who is truly the most popular
character in the Star Wars Universe. Many not too familiar with the universe outside of the movies would say
Luke, or maybe even Chewbacca, but seriously who likes those whoolie beasts; Those die hard fans of the hobby are quick
to point to Han Solo who has been voted the most popular character on Star Wars
dot com several times over the years. All are great answers, but when it comes to vintage collecting there is
one who rules supreme over all others, Boba Fett. The character that appeared for less then 2
minutes combined in the original trilogy is by far the most expensive figure
per capita in the Vintage Hobby. It
doesn’t matter the banner, whether it’s ANH, ESB or ROTJ the figure is by far
the most expensive (non-variant) in any line. Let’s look at some of the going
rates over the past few years for the Fett man.
Average Price by Banner 2014 – Boba Fett
Star Wars –
21 Back - $5000 - ANH
Boba Fett
ESB - $1500+
- ESB
Boba Fett
ROTJ - $800+
- ROTJ
Boba Fett
Revenge
Proof Card- $1500-2500
Droids -
$2500 - Droids
Boba Fett
The Star
Wars banner sticks out against all other banners, especially when you compare
to any 12 back figure, a grouping of figures that is consistently seen as the
most expensive run in the hobby. Even
as we go down the line into the ROTJ realm a figure that is just as common as
almost any other figure in the run (that being the re-issue Tatooine scene)
goes for infinitely more than the other 6 re-issue figures, in fact you could
find the re-issue Chewy, Han, Obi Wan, and Han as a group for less then what it
costs to find one clear bubble Boba Fett figure. Going onto Revenge proofs you could literally
get all the other ESB bounty hunters for what it costs to get the one Fett
proof. A pretty astonishing revelation
when you really think about it, and one that from a personal perspective has
been hard to swallow over the years.
Moving onto
another character and one with not as an extreme of a story is Darth
Vader. By definition the quintessential
villain not only in the Galaxy far, far away,
but also considered by many to be one of the greatest theatrical villain
in the history of cinema. Thus it’s
not as difficult to see why this character would demand such high value amongst
his signature items in the classic Kenner line.
He’s the only main villain to appear throughout the original trilogy, so
fans of the bad guys really only have 1 choice to focus on vs. the 5-7 good
guys that play opposite the Dark Lord. When you compare Vader to Fett it’s hard to imagine someone who had
literally an hour+ of screen time in the series comes in 2nd place
to someone with less then roughly 2 minutes of screen time. I’m not a clinical psychologist and won’t get
into the subtle undertones of why this may be.
Some of
Vader’s key items and they’re prices realized are listed below to give a
comparison to Fett and the general grouping of characters out there. You’ll instantly see a premium vs. other
staple characters if you follow the market, and this trend has held pretty
solid over the past few years, whereas Fett seems to be a little less
predictable, but that tends to happen with the most valuable items in any
collectibles hobby.
Average Price by Banner 2014 – Darth Vader
Star Wars –
12 Back - $1500+ - ANH
Darth Vader
ESB -
$600-800 - ESB
Darth Vader
ROTJ -
$300-500 Clear Bubble - ROTJ
Darth Vader
Revenge
Proof Card- $800-1000
Over the
years I’ve been very vocal that there are a few things that really drive up the
price of an item in our hobby, condition being the top reason on an item to
item basis. But when you look at these
items based on more tangible aspects the character reigns supreme when it comes
to value. It’s important for collectors
to know what drives the cost of these items, if nothing else to prepare for
what it will take to get the items they want. In addition I think it’s always
important to look at the “outliers” the lunatic fringe as my graduate school
stats teacher called it. As there is a
point when emotion outweighs logic, and a point where there always be a few
individuals (collectors) who will do crazy things and pay insane prices to get
the pieces the covet so much.
AFA High Graded Items – Value vs. Rarity and the impact on Price or
V + R = P or maybe not…
This next section is more of a
post reply, then anything else. As most
of you are aware I’m not an advocate of AFA, but I do use the service and am
happy that my entire collection has been incased in acrylic over the
years. I always reference some of the
earlier AFA ads that showcase single MOCs displayed in museum settings. I’ll be the first to say that these
suckered me into the fold as I have nice display cabinets at home, but my
collection just wouldn’t be as secure or visually impressive, as it is today
without the additional protection that AFA offers my vintage collection. Maybe that’s something that is important to
you, but I really love the way my collection looks in those little cases.
When it comes to grading I have
one opinion, and I’ve always held by it, if you like it great, if you don’t and
spend any time slamming the service, or putting any effort into letting others
know you think it’s worthless, you have other issues you need to address in
life (okay there’s the psychologist coming out). It’s pretty obvious there’s a general bully
mentality amongst other collectors around AFA, and because of that there will
always be mixed thoughts in the hobby as to it’s validity, value and overall
place in the hobby. Regardless of your
opinion, you have to admit that it has changed the game in the arena of vintage
Star Wars toy collecting. Whether it’s
for the better or worse is left up to your opinion, but one thing that has been
obvious to all those who collect is that the price index in the hobby has
shifted drastically when it comes to “loose” or graded items.
A big discussion over the last few
years has been what does the little number that AFA assigns to an item truly do
to the value of an item. Unfortunately
there are several answers to that question given the number of variables that
affect each individual piece and grade in itself. To get specific and help ground us here’s my
own personal opinion on value/price when it comes to graded MOC figures based
on what I’ve seen on eBay, chat boards and retail outlets over the year.
AFA 70 and below – Value of items is
typically lower than a non-graded item of slightly below average condition.
AFA75 – Value is roughly the cost of a
slightly below average condition plus the cost of grading.
AFA 80 - Value starts to increase above just the
cost of grading and the value of a non-graded C8 or better figure.
AFA 85 – Value takes a major spike, and
so does scarcity (depending on which line you’re looking at), when it comes to
an 85 you’re usually looking at the highest grade some specific figures will
ever receive, meaning for the specific figure/cardback combination this is
typically the top end of the grading scale.
AFA 90 – Here things get crazy and where
we get into the lunatic fringe. A MOC
or MISB item getting an AFA 90 is truly a rarity, there are collectors with the
full series graded that will never get a 90 on any of the figures. From a price perspective the prices typically
double the average price of the same figure in 85 condition.
Above AFA 90 – It’s hard to actually
put a value on items in the 95 or even a 100.
They represent something beyond an outlier when it comes to MOC and MISB
items. For that reason alone I won’t
give a percentage increase or even a relative ranking in value as they are
something of a legend in the hobby and thus create unpredictable purchase
behavior.
That should
give a general line of reference for the MOC and MISB items. I hate to use generalities as scarcity, and
as previously mentioned character also have a huge impact on final prices. Other factors that affect all auction prices
are present as well including reputation of the seller, the day of the week,
time of the auction and believe it or not the season as well all have
significant impacts on the price.
Moving off
of MOC and MISB items for a moment I did want to give a brief thought on loose
grading. Ultimately the one thought that
I wanted to ensure I conveyed is that you cannot compare a loose graded item
with a packaged graded item although the scales are the same. Rarity truly takes a nose dive here as good
condition loose figures can easily pull a 90. For comparative purposes I have a large collection of packaged items and
of all 100+ I only have one 90, my AT-ST driver. On the inverse I have a very small loose
collection (Just Droids and Ewoks Line) and in that grouping 17or so figures
nearly half of them received 90s.
Switching
categories again let’s take a quick pause on Proofs. Much like loose figures proofs are prone to
higher values then MOC and MISB items, thus it’s difficult to compare grades
and value in the same way as what we see with sealed toys. It’s also difficult to say that it’s comparable
to the loose figure scale as it’s truly a different beast.
In closing the impact grades have
on value and perceived rarity is real. It’s sometimes inflated and sometimes understated, regardless of which
side of the fence you’re on it’s something that can’t be ignored. When it comes to a simple way to look at
it’s true impact in value, sorry to disappoint but these aspects are situational,
and although I tried to boil this down to generalities, you really have to add
in aspects of the character and rarity to get a true read. Overall this was put together to use it as a
guide to help boil down some of the core elements, and what value you can
assign to different items and eliminate some of the muck that surrounds the
topic.
Abandoned Auctions
The true ultra evil in our hobby, beyond U grading, beyond
fakes/repros, there is one truly sickening and deprived trend in the Vintage
Hobby today…..Abandoned auctions! You
might say, well Pete it’s really not that damaging to the hobby overall, and I
would agree to a certain extent. But
when I look at this there’s no benefit that comes out of it, only damage unlike
all the other evils I’ve listed above.
For example:
AFA – casing is the main reason
over 50% of people send in their items to AFA, no harm no fowl, as you can
easily uncase the item if you have the muscular dexterity of a 5 year old. Not to mention that every hobby, coins,
stamps, paper currency, and comics all have grading companies and regardless of
the vast minority of collectors in those hobbies bitch and moan about it, they
are the standards, I just wish ours was a bit more consistent.
U Grading – Hard to argue their
isn’t damage, but U grading also had a significant impact on the value of loose
figures, and in my opinion is still okay for very poor examples of packaged
items.
Fakes/Repros – A straight evil in
every way trying to devalue legitimate items, lying an cheating collectors that
are non the wiser, and creating a recreational hazard to entry for new
collectors, there’s nothing good about making or selling these pieces of fake
vintage plastic.
Customs – To a well trained
collector they’re great, to an shady dealer they’re dangerous. Something that has a bit of a ying and yang
in the vintage community they can cause as much damage as enjoyment.
Ultimately the validity of abandoned auctions being a huge
issue in the hobby tugs at a questions that we’ve discussed before on the MW,
why do you collect? For some it’s the
joy of the hobby, for others it’s reliving memories, and for some it’s about an
investment. Regardless of your reasoning, abandoned auctions have adverse
effects for all segments of collectors who are actively or planning to sell any
part of their collection. This boils
down to a few points, mainly belief in the auction selling process, perception
in prices and the behavioral effects on buyers and sellers.
The first two points can be summed up fairly quickly. In the global market there is a general
apprehension about eBay, this is elevated by apprehension towards internet
purchases, and escalated by the third party nature of auctions in general. Given that we must understand that a vast
majority of buyers don’t particularly like to use eBay as a means to find
products. In the case of Vintage Star
Wars, this is the main marketplace, as Toy sites and chat boards make up the
minority of Vintage toy sales. Hearing
about shill bidding and seeing abandoned auctions leads to greater apprehension
on customers. Knowing that both happen
in rarity is fine for a seasoned collector, but for the rookie out there it
creates an additional perceived risk in collecting. With that in mind we must know that these
types of auctions end up having a negative effect on the one thing that keeps
our hobby going, new collectors. As
without new blood the hobby will dry up, the effects will be significant, and
overall devastating regardless of your disposition on selling or keeping your collection.
The second negative effect on the Hobby is perception in
price. One of the barriers to entry in
the hobby today is price. Unlike the
late 90s and 2000s where someone could find proof cards for $50-100 and MOC 12
backs for $200 consistently, we now live in a world where prices have increased
5 fold. Thus if someone is keeping tabs
on the market, specifically a unique or hard to find item we find that an
abandoned auction can create a sense of fear or apprehension regarding collecting
overall. There are dozens of examples of
this occurring, but one that’s close to the chest for me and rather visible in
the hobby happened earlier this summer. As a lot of you know I focus on the ROTJ line, and overall I have a
pretty strong handle on the rarity, and true demand of the line which is
usually understated by most veteran collectors. However I was strangely taken back by a
particular auction for an ROTJ Tie Fighter. The auction ended in early June and was earmarked by two factors, one it
was the first and only ROTJ Tie Fighter to receive an AFA 85 (10 Total Grades)
the highest grade ever given to an ROTJ MISB Tie Fighter. But what really caught my eye was the ending
auction price $3,802……Yes that’s five
periods for WTF, OMG and any other three letter acronym that conveys shock and
awe. I thought it was a joke, but it
wasn’t, what it was, was an abandoned auction driven up by someone in Isreal
who then refused to pay for the item. After contacting the buyer on this one, I found out that he eventually
sold it for $1500 to someone in the states. A little high in price, but given these aren’t nearly as common as the ESB
or Star Wars release, and throwing in the fact that it was the highest graded
example I wasn’t completely shocked. But
for someone who didn’t follow up or just didn’t have the ability to be nosey
like me and contact the buyer directly they would go on thinking that the piece
actually sold for that much. And so is
the folly of our hobby and our friends at AFA, as they took the auction and
listed it on their front page under a section they call the power of
grading. Showcasing the piece next to a
C6 non graded version that sold for around $300, and saying see, see this is
what AFA does for you, silly graders. I reached out to AFA and I believe they eventually pulled the listing
off their front page, but it just shows how much people take ending auction prices
at face value. Thus this is a damning
trend from a price perception point of view as well as behaviorally.
Tie
Fighter MISB ROTJ - AFA85 - $3802
Behavioral issues associated with abandoned auctions can be
typically summed up by the reactive actions you see from sellers and
buyers. Part of this is perception,
but there is a reality in the fact that no matter which side of the coin you’re
on it will affect your behavior in the sort and sometimes long run. For buyers
the challenge is that they believe that something is awry. Let’s say that you were a character focus
collector, you’re exhausted all the production pieces available and are looking
for icing to put on your cake, let’s say a hardcopy of your character. You
wait, a year, maybe two, maybe more, and then you see one come up on eBay. You get excited, about the auction, spend
time prepping for the day it ends, set an end price you’re willing to pay. The auctions end nears, and low and behold it
shoots up $1000 more then you wanted to pay. Disappointed you move on, but only to find the item relisted a few days
later. Asking yourself what happened
your first thought shoots to shill bidding, or something crooked with the other
bidders or the sellers themselves. Thus
you’re guarded about the potential auction and in turn act cautiously about the
opportunity to purchase the item. In
these cases buyers become more reserved and this can carry on through their
collecting years, leading to overpaying, or worse passing on items.
On the seller side the sting can be even worse. As we all know Evil Bay charges exorbitant
fees these days to list on there site. And although there is recourse (to some extent) unless you have a
cooperative non paying bidder you can end up eating those fees even if they don’t
pay. Thus going forward you may hedge
to stay away from auction style listings and opt to do buy it now auctions. Thus raising the price floor of the item to
cover the even more exorbitant costs associated with BIN auctions. Now we have reactive behavior that not only
affects someone’s ability to sell the item, it also adversely affects the
buyers who now have to pay a premium for that item.
BKCHI a member on Rebelscum had the opportunity to pass
along a pair of ESB MISB 6 Packs recently. Both items went for the high prices these tend to drive in the market,
however the Yellow 6-Pack which out numbers its Red 6-Pack counterpart by a
ratio of about 7-1 was never paid for. In this case we saw the price appreciate to well over the going market
rate over the past few years nearing the same price point as the Red version. To this day he’s still trying to part with
the item, and from my perspective he’s just a shade high of where he can truly
move the piece, but so are most sellers trying to sell as BIN auctions. And I believe this is due in part to where
the auction ended as a whole, as the seller is pretty in tune with the market,
but seeing an astronomical price tag on the item changes the price horizon for
many sellers and makes them try to realize more then what the market bears.
It’s a trend that has risen in frequency and impact over the
years. Something that used to be tied
to shill bidding is quickly becoming a pandemic in the hobby. The effects of this phenoma in the hobby are
reach deeply into the overall health of the hobby. But you can guard yourself against this by a
few simple rules, for sellers, limit the geographic scope of where you’ll sell,
Spain, The Middle East, Singapore and China tend to be the biggest areas where
you risk dealing with non-paying buyers. Limit who can bid on your items, you can do this via the level of
feedback they have received as well as the number of auctions they haven’t paid
on. From a buyer perspective set
auction limits and stick to them, you never know when the item you were
watching will come back on the market, if the price seems crazy, it probably
is.
What are your
thoughts on these topics, post here or at Rebelscum.com forums and let us know.
This sums up the MarketWatch update for the month of August,
our first new article to be posted on the SWCA.com. Continue to follow us here or at
Wordpress.com.
Wampa Wampa!
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