Summer is nearly here -- well at least for those of us in the Northern Hemisphere -- with convention season officially kicking off, a trailer for a new movie, and another Celebration coming up, the hobby and all things surrounding the Star Wars franchise are buzzing everywhere you go. With this iteration of the MarketWatch in 2016 we take a unique look at a group of auctions from one particular seller. These are items that we see for sale all too often on the boards or eBay, but this will focus on some of the best known examples of these hobby staples.
In addition to focusing in on these items and how they
performed, in this installment we discuss the overall trend in the hobby on a
specific topic, condition, and its importance in the hobby historically and
today. It’s something we’ve touched on
in the past and it still remains the most crucial aspect to price and overall
demand. With this we’ll
focus in on two groups of auctions: a small group of ROTJ MOC figures and a
larger set of POTF MOC figures. There
are a few things that are consistent across all of these items: 1) everything
has a grade above 80 and 2) all have clear bubbles.
Clear bubbles and related value with ROTJ and POTF figures is more than a
function of condition. It’s truly about availability and demand, given that it
creates an offering that borders on the lunatic fringe, the line between the
sane and the insane, the rational and the irrational. But
just how difficult is it to find certain figures with clear bubbles? In reviewing AFAs assigned grades for a few
of the figures that we are discussing today, we find the following:
Luke Skywalker (Imperial Stormtrooper Outfit) AFA Graded Examples:
-
Yellow = 198
-
Clear = 10
-
Ratio =
5%
Han Solo (In Carbonite Chamber) AFA Graded Examples:
-
Yellow = 181
-
Clear = 37
-
Ratio =
20%
In another way of looking at it, 1 in 20 Luke Stormtroopers
are clear and 1 in 5 Han Solo Carbonite figures have been graded as clear. Even here we see a fairly wide gap from
figure to figure, but in the grand scheme of things they both fall to one
extreme of the spectrum. One thing to
keep in mind about these numbers is that over time, AFA changed the way they
approached yellow bubble designations. Thus, our numbers come solely from the
period since AFA started using their 3 tier scale on figures. Figures graded earlier by the company could
have been done so during periods where yellow bubbles were documented as part
of the process or during the period where this wasn’t, so we wanted to stay
away from the single tier grading results.
Additionally, as we all know just because an item was graded
clear doesn’t mean it stays clear. As
much as the cases protect figures from certain environmental issues such as
partial and almost complete UV protection (a key enabler of bubbles yellowing), we can’t guarantee that items graded clear will remain that way. There are so many factors that affect a MOC
figures bubble that we can assert that a large portion of items graded clear
have already or will turn yellow in the future. Thus in a lot of ways we’re chasing an ever
changing aspect of condition that can only truly be measured by the current
state of an item.
When we talk about these auctions and classify some of them
as simply the best examples out there, we aren’t just talking exclusively about
their bubbles, but rather the whole presentation. The key differentiator here is that the
pricing in all of these cases is truly driven by the clearness of the
bubble. Where an AFA 85 Luke
Stormtrooper with a yellow bubble will sell for roughly $600, our clear example
sold for 10 times that amount.
At the end of the day we are truly talking about individual
preference, however we can’t look at these results as anomalies. There has been a trend that has been growing
around this segment for years and with the overall appreciation in prices in the vintage Star Wars hobby we’ve seen this segment follow suit. It comes down to what people want and where
they place importance on certain characteristics of condition. This has been
ever present in our hobby. Not only do collectors focus on a certain type of
item, but most also set a standard for the condition of their items as
well.
RETURN OF THE JEDI
Often associated with yellow bubbles more than any other
series is the Return of the Jedi line of figures. The series had four different release cycles: 48, 65, 77 and 79 backs. The 48 back
series, which for all intensive purpose was a transition series, is the least
riddled with yellow bubbles.
Overall we
believe that roughly 80% or 4 out of 5 figures remained in a clear state in
this series. The 65 back series is
really where things started to take a nasty turn for the worse and all releases
following this one had major issues with bubbles turning yellow. There have been several things noted as
causes for this turn, but most commonly people look to a change in the type of
plastic used. Environmental aspects put
aside, this general rule of thumb around the type of plastic used is fairly
consistent, and as we move into the 77, 79 and POTF 92 backs it continues, if
not worsens.
Han Solo (In Trench Coat) - AFA 85 Clear Bubble - $1,526
Imperial TIE Fighter Pilot - AFA 85 Clear Bubble - $1,025
Han Solo (Alternate Photo) - AFA 85 Clear Bubble - $610
POWER OF THE FORCE
The POTF series marks some big moves in the history of
action figures. It showcased Kenner’s advancement in craftsmanship encompassing
more detail and more elaborate sculpts. It also served as the last installment of the original Star Wars toy
line. The run was short and thus the
products have always had a premium of some kind vs. the majority of the rest of
the vintage line.
The line has also been plagued by yellow bubbles, even more so
then the ROTJ series. Not only did you
have to worry about the outer bubbles yellowing in this series, but more so
than others before it, the POTF line used back bubbles or trays to support
several of the figures. Given their
lack of exposure to air these tend to yellow at an even faster rate than the
outer bubbles. Thus, even those bubbles
that truly remained clear may be classified as yellow by graders and collectors
alike.
The results for some of these auctions are the highest on
record for some of these figures and they truly represent the best of the best
in terms of condition and overall desirability.
Luke Skywalker (Imperial Stormtrooper Outfit) - AFA 85 Clear Bubble - $6,000
Han Solo (In Carbonite Chamber) - AFA 85 Clear Bubble - $6,753
R2-D2 with pop-up Lightsaber - AFA 85 Clear Bubble - $2,436
Luke Skywalker (In Battle Poncho) - AFA 85 Clear Bubble - $1,492
Amanaman - AFA 80 Clear Bubble- $968
A-Wing Pilot - AFA 80 Clear Bubble - $621
EV-9D9 - AFA 85 Clear Bubble - $677
Barada - AFA 85 Clear Bubble - $1,081
Imperial Dignitary - AFA 85 Clear Bubble - $2,000
Warok - AFA 85 Clear Bubble - $1,136
That wraps up our Spring update, be sure to look for the
next podcast from Skye and Steve and check out the Zuckuss MarketWatch from my
partner in crime "Brisbane-Brisbane" Mike.
Wampa Wampa,
"Fratastic" Pete
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