MarketWatch: It's Raining First Shots

Pete writes:

Hello Space Freaks -- with a plethora of 3D vintage pre-production hitting the market, I thought it would be appropriate to discuss the influx of first shot figures that have come to market over the past few months. 

The back half of 2019 was a period that saw the second iteration of the IC Nashville event along with the evergreen shows such as Kane County, Cincinnati, and Columbus -- all of which had record attendance this past fall. It was also a period of time where the post Celebration woes finally wore off, and the hobby was back in its normal swing of things.  

This month we’re doing a special overview on first shots and their widespread availability through eBay, power brokers, and auction houses. It’s a unique opportunity to look at several types of first shots. From complete painted pieces to head and torso pulls, there has been a lot pre-production plastic on the market in the past six months.  

I felt it was a good time to talk about the topic given the overall growth of this segment in the past 4 years, as it’s had an arc/growth trajectory that surpasses even the general growth trend we’ve seen with other areas of the hobby. After a bit of a tumultuous turn through the Hake’s auction earlier this fall, I felt it was also the time to discuss this segment in terms of its viability and long term value, as it’s one of the few that’s had some significant fall off in a relatively short amount of time, resetting a new norm that some other areas of the hobby haven’t seen. The biggest things to remember on first shots and their performance in the market are:

1. Production like first shots are not as desirable as they were the last 24 months, especially with characters that have high numbers in their known population (Cantina Aliens being one example). They are still commanding good prices for good condition, but loose and rough condition items have really suffered.

2     2. Unpainted and unique first shots are still appreciating in value, gaining in popularity and still seeing some growth year over year in the hobby. Where one area is contradicting, another is gaining steam.

If you’re new to the hobby or just need a refresher, here’s a quick overview:

What is a first shot?

To quote one of the Holy Trinity of the Star Wars collecting world, “First shots are among the very first plastic figures to come from the steel molds” -- this has always served as the base to the core of this question, as the true place of a first shot in the production process is the biggest point of misconception in the hobby today. They can come in many forms, painted, unpainted, partially painted, or even in an early stage with some small variances needed, including alterations to the mold. This is part of the appeal to many collectors, especially character focus collectors, as many strive to show the progression of the toy line and production process.    

Unlike hardcopies, these are built with the final joints in place vs. pinned in place, in fact to the untrained eye a painted first shot figure may not look all that dissimilar from its production counterpart being produced in the same material. Thus, sometimes the lack of copyright info is the only way to identify a potential first shot figure with the naked eye.

In general, finding a first shot for your collection is an obtainable milestone for most vintage Star Wars collectors. This coupled with the reasons above have led to first shot figures gaining in popularity in the past few years, and with growth in popularity usually comes price appreciation. For the official Archive Lexicon entry on first shots click here.

First Shots by the Numbers:

Although they are among the oldest, some of the characters from Star Wars are the most plentiful of any first shots to hit the market. Looking strictly at characters, Boba Fett (roughly 100) and the Cantina Creatures (40+) represent nearly 15% of all first shots ever found (see below), explaining why we see such a large population of SW characters vs. the later lines which were more robust in character count. With SW the rarity comes in the other characters, with Death Star Droid and R5-D4 funnily being a couple of the rarest. 

As we get into later lines, variation increases and populations become more sporadic, especially with the ESB and ROTJ releases. Turning the corner, the last 15 POTF (Paploo and Lumat are counted with ROTJ) have varying degrees. Truly the next significantly large population on a per figure basis comes from the Ewoks and Droids series, and oddly enough more so with unproduced characters than some of the production figures from the line. 

As with any numbers that I post there is a margin of error. This aggregation is based on multiple sources, known examples, graded databases, and sold examples from the past several years. With that background covered and the quantities reviewed, let’s look at some of the great pieces to come to the market in the past months.

SW First Shots

Regardless of high quantities of a few, some of the other figures in the First 21 are the most difficult to track down of any series. Characters like R5-D4 and Death Star Droid are naturally rare, but the desirability of the First 12 drives the demand up on the entire gallery of figures.  

Cantina Aliens Set of 4 (with Blue Snaggletooth) - $32,750 Listed - eBay Listing

In addition to the set of four, individual examples of these figures have come up for sale through multiple channels over the latter part of the year, including Facebook and Hake’s Auction House. To keep things simple, we’ve just covered the Hake’s results below. Any other sale of the items previously mentioned sold below the following in terms of overall price.

Greedo - AFA 60 - $2,596 - Hake's Fall 2019 Listing

85 or better estimated $5K+or better by this measure.

Walrusman - AFA 85 - $2,758 - Hake's Fall 2019 Listing

Hammerhead - AFA 85 - $3,540 - Hake's Fall 2019 Listing

Blue Snaggletooth - AFA 75 - $4,130 - Hake's Fall 2019 Listing

85 or better estimated $8K+ by this measure.

Given that we are talking about first shots, it would be a miss not to mention the item below, a nice variant making it one of the few rare RF Fetts out there.

Rocket Firing Boba Fett - $185,850 

Hake's Fall 2019 Listing

ESB First Shots

The First Shots that have been found for the ESB series include some of the more sought after pieces in the pantheon of preproduction items, the series expanded upon what was built in ANH, and because of that many new facets of the hobby were created in the ESB line, which has lead to some very unique pieces.

Luke Skywalker Hoth - AFA 80 - $12,500 Listed Price eBay Listing

Luke Skywalker Hoth (Unpainted) - AFA 85+ - $9,750 - eBay Listing

AT-AT Commander (Unpainted) - AFA 85 - $5,500 - eBay Listing

ROTJ First Shots

Although one of the later series, first shots from the ROTJ toy line tend to be few and far between. More common examples like the AT-ST Driver, Lando Skiff, and Admiral Ackbar are exceptions to the rule.

AT-ST Driver - AFA 80 - $5,500 Listed Price - eBay Listing

Boushh (Tan and Brown) - AFA 80 - $7,750 Listed - eBay Listing

Boushh (Tan with Tan Crotch) - AFA 75 - $7,750 - eBay Listing

Prune Face (Alt Dark Cape with Grey Gun) - $7,750 -  eBay Listing

Rebel Commando AFA85 - $7,750 Listed - eBay Listing

Lando Skiff Torso Pull - AFA 90 - $2,500 - eBay Listing

Admiral Ackbar - AFA 90 - Clear Torso Pull - $1,550 Listed - eBay Listing

POTF First Shots

With hands getting heavy at Kenner towards the end of the Vintage era, several examples of most POTF figures have made it into the collecting market, including favorites like the Charcoal Anakin Skywalker and the below takes on the color pallets used in some of the Ewoks.

Warok Dark Brown - AFA 75+ - $7,750 Listed Price - eBay Listing

Romba Dark Brown - $7,750 - eBay Listing

Amanaman AFA 85 - $7,950 - eBay Listing

Ewoks and Droids

Some of the most sought after first shots in any toy line are the unproduced 2^nd Series of the Droids and Ewoks figures. Great sculpting along with limited availability of some key characters have led to this being a very strong segment of the hobby. The examples that we’re seeing here are interesting as they're early unpainted examples which tend to be rarer than their finished counterparts.

Logray Ewoks Unpainted First Shot - $1,800 - Cantina Collectibles

Jord Dusat First Shot - AFA Q80 - $7,500 - eBay Listing

Chief Chirpa Unpainted UDE - $4,900 - Cantina Collectibles

Jann Tosh Unpainted First Shot - $5,000 - AFA 85 - eBay Listing

So as it can be seen the market for first shots is very healthy even after some larger discoveries and an increase in availability over the past few years. There are only so many pieces out there and they remain a hot segment of the hobby. Future growth potential will depend on a lot of factors (more so with the franchise as a whole, vs. this specific segment) however that might be the category continues to see strong demand and relatively short shelf lives when paired with the appropriate pricing and audience.

Until next time...Wampa Wampa,
Pete

Limelight Interview #6B - To the 3rd Degree: Tim Eckholdt

PART TWO: 3D COLLECTION

  Pete writes:

Wampa Wampa, Space Freaks! For our second round of discussion with Super Collector Tim Eckholdt, we move to items with a bit more dimension. While we focused the first Limelight of Tim’s collection on 2D items, we’re now moving over to the illustrious category of 3D vintage items. The 3D category has been the fastest growing segment of the pre-production market over the past several years, both in terms of demand and value.   Although not outpacing 2D by much, first shots, engineering pilots and hardcopies have become a major focus in the hobby due to the popularity of character focus collections. Beyond complete figures, items such as arms, heads, and torsos have all become key pieces for character focus collectors across the board.    

Given both the popularity and depth of this collecting category we’re happy to bring the 2^nd part of Tim’s Limelight: all things 3D pre-production in the vintage Star Wars universe.

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INTERVIEW:

FP: When did you first start to branch out into 3D preproduction items? 

TE: I branched out into 3D items and other pre-production at about the same time. I was still collecting production items at that point and it was a way to continue the journey. One of the great things about collecting is that there’s always other areas to get into and other segments to look at. It’s part of the reason people who have been in the hobby that have been at it for years like Chris G[eorgoulias] and Ron [Salvatore] that still haven’t seen everything. It motivates us and keeps us going. Plus, not everything has been found. New stuff still pops up from time to time.

FP: What’s your favorite piece (or pieces) in your 3D collection? 

TE:  IG-88 12” painted hardcopy. The detail is incredible. I was never a big a fan of the “dolls.” I never had any as a kid. Even the production dolls didn’t do much for me, but I loved the packaging and the detail on the pre-production is incredible. You can see so much on it; it’s a big ass space robot...it doesn’t get much better than that. Todd originally had the figure, he was selling a lot of pre-production at the time and we went back and forth on the piece but couldn’t come to terms on a price for it. I bought all the other stuff from the lot but I didn’t get that piece; John Alvarez ended up picking it up. I eventually worked out a deal with John. Now I have the full set with the exception of the Jawa.

FP: What piece means the most to you?

TE: Luke Bespin hardcopy. It was my favorite figure as a kid and when I started to collect that was the first one I went after. Even today it’s my favorite of the figure of the line. It’s actually an unpainted carbolon. It was Bill Wills that originally owned it, but I bought it from Grant. I picked up the piece between Celebration VI and VII.  It was the one piece in the collection that I knew that I paid too much money for at the time, but I was okay with it as it was such an important piece for me.

FP: Wow that’s incredible, and since then you’ve been able to branch out into a few other key pieces for the figure.

FP: What was the hardest piece to find or acquire?

TE: It’s kind of tough. Really a lot of this stuff is taking advantage of the opportunities when you’re presented with it. I didn’t dig anything out of anyone’s collection, stuff tends to show up and you make it happen. Ultimately timing is key in the hobby. The most nerve-wracking was the Han Bespin hardcopy. A lot of anxiety, because I wasn’t into the 3D stuff for that long, so I was apprehensive to jump into the fold. The first step is always the toughest. Loose to MOC jump, MOC to pre-production jump, stepping up is sometimes hard to do.

FP: I saw that you had a few of the Vader Carrying Case first shots, but one in particular stood out to me: the one that has a gold front and what appears to be a chrome back, what can you tell me about that? 

TE:  I got it from the same guy as the other first shots, Jay Butler. He was buying stuff from The Earth back in the day. I think the silver was shot first, then the gold was shot secondly as an overlay as they were testing the paint. Inside is the dull gold color that is seen on other example. On the silver side it has a date of 2/1 that is hand written, and on the gold side it has a piece of tape with the date of 2/1. 

Bill McBride has a similar case with no dating on it. It’s a first shot case that was then used for the test run. Amazing pieces. Of course Bill has several, but I’m always impressed when I come across one.




FP: Tell me about where the Boba Fett 4-Ups came from.

TE: The painted one came from [Tom] Derby, it’s the paint master that is in the Archive and it has the same sticker on the base - J1. The unpainted came from the Celebration VI finds. It was a nice surprise to find it.

FP: Those are great pieces, and I’m sure there are those out there that are jealous of you being able to shake those loose.
      

FP: One thing I noticed about your collection is a lot of Coin related items. What can you tell me about the 6-Up pre-production pieces?  

TE: I initially got a pair. They were Imperial Gunner pieces. I was able to find the softcopies and hardcopies for the character. I was trading with James Gallo and through it I actually got the Yoda hardcopy as well. About two years ago I said my goal was to get a coin run, but my real hope was to get a character run from each mint [Worldwide and Osborne]. 

Someone was letting go of their Ben Kenobi run and I was able to pick up that character. It wasn’t even two weeks later from that deal and John Alvarez decided to let go of the Zuckuss run, so I was able to get both done in a month. Worldwide did Kenobi and Osborne did Zuckuss, and I had both sculpts. I was really lucky as only about 20% of the sculpts actually still exist from a character perspective. 

Another cool grouping I was able to find were the two stages of the Creatures coin. In addition I have the Osborne dies for the coin, along with 6-up examples of the coin.

FP: Given your focus on the Cantina characters that has to be a really important piece for you.  

FP: What keeps you going after all these years?

TE: Stupidity [we both laugh]. The thought that you’ll see something you haven’t seen before. The hope that you’ll be able to bring pieces that have never seen the light of day out into the light of day. Goals. Keep setting higher goals for yourself and it keeps you motivated. You can get a large percentage of the run together easily and it’s the difficulty of getting to those last few pieces, it drives you. You might know where it is and you try to let them know you’re interested. I’m not one to constantly ping someone over a piece, but I check back periodically trying to get other pieces that are really important to me.

 

FP: What is your best memory from collecting? 

TE: Celebration VI. I’d had been asked to go to several Celebrations before that and it never really seemed to worked out. I was starting to lose a little enthusiasm for the hobby. I had a few friends in the hobby at that time, but most of my time was spent talking to people over email and online. I didn’t get to meet a lot of people face to face, it was really impersonal.  

Going to the event with a bunch of guys from AZ was great. Getting to meet a lot of the guys that were in the hobby for a long time and how open and inviting they were. I started to realize part of the loss of energy in the hobby was due to not taking as much part in the social aspect. It changed my perspective on the hobby. I mention this one guy a lot, he had a huge collection, he sold it off, and to my knowledge he never really met anyone in the hobby and built a relationship. If you don’t partake you miss out on a big part of what collecting is all about.

FP: What are some of your interests outside of collecting? Does your Star Wars collection spill over into any other collectibles?  

TE: I started collecting comics prior to getting into Star Wars. I’ve always had a collector’s type of personality, some of us are just wired that way. I had a lot of key issues during the peak of my comic collecting, going back to Golden age stuff. I also spend time with hot rods. You got to see my roadster, and I’ve always appreciated the culture from that era.   

FP: What does your significant other and family think about your collecting? 

TE: My wife has always been very supportive. I was always collecting since we were together. She knows it makes me happy. She’s gone on trips with me buying collections. The friend aspect extends to her as well, she’s made a lot of friends out of it. She’ll go out with other collectors' wives even when I’m not hanging out with the other collectors. I couldn’t imagine being a collector who doesn’t have the support of their significant other. The kids are young. They have some interest in Star Wars, but they don’t really understand it.

FP: If you were a Star Wars character who would it be? 

TE: Oh wow...this is one of those questions that Skye and Steve do on the podcast.

FP: No it’s a completely original question that has nothing to do with this podcast thing you talk about....

TE:  Of course, of course, I most closely relate to a Jawa. Just for the simple fact that I live in the desert and I scavenge for things.

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If you ever want a more linear view of Tim’s collection be sure to visit his Rebelscum limelight page at the link below.   It’s in itself a mini archive of specific pieces from his collection and showcases the items individually rather than part of an ensemble.

Tim Eckholdt Rebelscum Limelight

Fall 2015 MarketWatch: Uber Coinage

Pete writes:

Happy November Space Freaks!

This month we have a MarketWatch focusing on all things coin related in the Vintage universe. This summer saw some extremely high-highs for coin collectors in the market on the same wave that all things vintage Star Wars were experiencing. In typical fashion we have a heavy focus on the rarer and higher priced items in the series.

Rarity in many cases is relative to demand, and in the case of this month's items we see that even Category II coins are no longer seen as mere commodities in the hobby, but rather items that are commanding high dollar amounts. For collectors unfamiliar or needing a refresher on the coin categories, be sure to check out the Comprehensive Guide to POTF, Droids, and Ewoks Coins right here on the SWCA. With that out of the way, let’s get to the coverage and see where people decided to blow their dollars!

CATEGORY I & II EXAMPLES

The most common of the coins, these two categories are also the most easily defined. Category I coins are simply defined as those featuring the "Last 17" characters from the original figure line while Category II coins represent all other figures that were released on POTF cardbacks. The two series have a lot of variation in price but for the most part they top out at $30 a piece, with most Category I coins getting around $10 a piece on eBay. Regardless, people are paying top dollar for the two rarest ones: Anakin Skywalker and Yak Face. The two get a lot of attention given that they were attached to rare MOC figures in the POTF line and in turn they demand a lot more than $10 a piece.

Anakin Skywalker Coin - $220 - eBay listing

Yak Face Coin - $499 - eBay listing

 
CATEGORY III EXAMPLES

The Category III coins have a unique place in the hierarchy of POTF coins. They are the smallest segment in terms of item count and are also the start of the mail-away only coins. Typically ranging from $75-$200 in price, they are the most attainable of the mail-away only coins. For this category we only have the Han Solo Hoth coin to review. However, some of the others like the TIE Fighter Pilot and Luke Skywalker (Farmboy) come up almost monthly, so if you’re looking for something that wasn’t released in stores and don’t want to drop a boatload they’re a safe bet.

Han Solo Hoth Coin - $163 - eBay listing

CATEGORY IV EXAMPLES

The Category IV coins are where we really start to see rarity come into play. Most command a price of $100 or more and most only come on eBay 3-4 times a year. Personally, this is where collecting the coin line gets really interesting. First you have multi character coins like the "Droids" or "Creatures" coins, then you have vehicle coins and a grouping of single character coins. It has a lot of variety and a lot of people who don’t specifically collect coins will end up getting a Category IV for a focus collection or just because there are several that are unique in comparison to most of the series. This month I was able to find 5 examples with several that went for extremely frugal prices. Unlike the Category Vs, these coins can still be affordable and that adds to the luster of this category specifically.

Emperor's Royal Guard Coin - $130 - eBay listing

Bib Fortuna Coin (AFA 90) - $178 - eBay listing

Lando Calrissian (Cloud City) Coin (AFA 85) - $102 - eBay listing

AT-AT Coin (AFA 85) - $223 - eBay listing

Creatures Coin - $450 (Best Offer Estimate) - eBay listing 

CATEGORY V EXAMPLES

The Category V coins are the most difficult to acquire,  in many cases demanding higher prices than many of the prototype coins. Most command a price of over $1,000 a piece (with a few exceptions). The prices of this segment have appreciated faster than others due to the plain fact that these are the last coins for many who are putting together a full run. Below we have a few graded examples and a non-graded Leia Boushh that commanded a price of $1,600 -- this along with Tatooine Skiff, Greedo, Zuckuss, and Luke Hoth are typically the most difficult coins to find in the series.

Han Solo (Original) Coin (AFA 85) - $800 (Best Offer Estimate) - eBay listing

Too-One Bee (2-1B) Coin (AFA 85) - $800 (Best Offer Estimate) - eBay listing

Princess Leia Boushh Coin - $1400 (Best Offer Estimate)  - eBay listing

PROTOTYPES

Prototype coins are a unique niche in the hobby. Unlike most prototypes that are very sought after, this segment has a more focused demand among collectors. There are several reasons one could factor into this, though a big factor seems to be a lack of interest tied to a lot of fakes. Below we have one coin in question that could fall into that category (I’ll leave it to the readers to do their own research on the A-Wing Pilot coin). However, there are always some exceptions to the rule. This month we have a Vlix coin that is a must for many Droids collectors and typically commands right around the $1,000 mark. The one nice thing about prototype coins and their low demand is the low cost of entry into to collecting a single item or handful as can be displayed by the Kez Iban coin we see below.

One thing that holds true with the prototype coins and really anything from the vintage line is that variants drive demand and price. Below we have what appears to be the typical small format prototype for the Luke X-Wing coin -- but with a small difference -- this is a variant with a different back than most of the Luke X-Wing coins. This particular coin was overlooked by many collectors as being the typical small format coin however this was a varaint and the example saw the highest price for any vintage POTF coin in the past month, quite a feat for something so small.

A-Wing Pilot (Gold) Coin - $154 - eBay listing

Kez Iban - $360 - (eBay listing no longer available)

Vlix AFA 85 - $1000 - eBay listing

Luke Skywalker (X-Wing Pilot) Small Prototype Coin (Variant) - $2,125 - eBay listing

That wraps up this month of coverage on the market. Keep checking back on the www.theswca.com for more updates and the next installment of the 'Chive Cast.

Wampa Wampa,

FB24